–– Seth Meyers
The audio version of this article is available here: YouTube, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify.
The scandal of the African church is that there is not much of an African church. Most of the 54 countries in Africa claim to be Christian by more than 50% of their inhabitants. That works out to be nearly half of the 1.5 billion Africans on the continent.
Number of Churches
Using South Africa as a test case, can we estimate the number of Christians in the country? If we estimated there were 50 Sola 5 churches with 200 members each in South Africa, that would be 10,000 members. That is more churches and more members in each church, but just as a thought experiment, let it stand. Now add in an estimated 50 assemblies from the Afrikaans Baptiste Kerke with 200 members each, and there is another 10,000.
REACH in South Africa lists 137 churches. At 200 members each that is about 25,000. Could we estimate 200 independent Baptist and Bible churches with 200 each—40,000? For other small denominations, let us add 200 more assemblies with 200 truly converted members each.
Let us assume that all 37,000 members of the 537 Baptist Union churches, as well as an extra 13,000 visitors, are both true churches and true converts: 50,000. Let us assume there are more than 50 genuine believers in each of the 1,858 Dutch Reformed assemblies which includes all three NGK, NHK, and GK for a total of 100,000.
Can we imagine that there are 500 assemblies of charismatic and non-denominational churches that hold to the Biblical gospel and also have a Biblical membership of 200 each? That is another 100,000. If you look back over that math, the members in this greatly exaggerated example equal less than 600,000, not even 1% of South Africa’s population of 64 million. And I intentionally made the numbers larger than the evidence.
| Church Group | Estimated Churches | Estimated True Believers |
| Sola 5 | 50 | 10,000 |
| Afrikaans Baptiste Kerke | 50 | 10,000 |
| REACH | 137 | 25,000 |
| Independent | 200 | 40,000 |
| Others | 200 | 40,000 |
| Baptist Union | 537 | 50,000 |
| Dutch Reformed (NGK, NHK, GK) | 1,858 | 100,000 |
| Charismatic and Non-denom. | 500 | 100,000 |
| TOTAL | 3,532 | 375,000 |
Can any South African believer imagine that all 3,532 churches listed above are Biblical, gospel-preaching churches? “No,” you say, “Many of those churches do not preach Biblically. They have denied the law of Christ openly, even on their websites. Some even celebrate false doctrine and perversion.” The number of Biblical churches should make us think the total number of Christians is a mere sliver.
But perhaps true Christians are in bad churches, or don’t go to any church? Is there evidence that within false and weak churches, there are such large numbers of members and visitors who are denying themselves daily, taking up their crosses, and following the Sermon on the Mount?
Zambia has 22 million: Would the numbers look much better? If all the members and visitors that Wikipedia lists for all groups of Baptists in Zambia were truly converted and doubled, it would make less than 3% of their population.
And Zambia and South Africa seem to have the highest number of solid, Biblical churches in Africa. With the number of churches and members in these counties, do we have evidence to think that there is even a significant minority of true Christianity?
Guilty Until Proven Innocent
Civil society functions well when it rightly assumes people are innocent until proven guilty. In Christian theology, it ought to be the reverse. We are required to approach men with a “Guilty-Until-Proven-Innocent” attitude.
No pastor should call a man a spiritual brother or a child of God or a sheep of the Good Shepherd without evidence, since that man was born:
- in sin (Ps. 51:5)
- lost (Is. 53:6)
- condemned (John 3:18)
- filled with hatred toward Jesus (John 7:7)
- as a child of Satan (John 8:44)
- dead in his sins (Eph. 2:1)?
Don’t we require at least a public profession of faith before baptising someone as a follower of Jesus (Ps. 66:16; 107:2; Acts 8:37; Rom. 10:9)?
Objections
- Some will feel offended or attacked by such negative conclusions. If you feel offended, you must ask, ‘Why?’. Do you agree that we need evidence before counting someone as a Christian? Are there a significant number of Biblical churches that were not listed? Are you secretly proud of your culture and heritage so that you actually find vain glory in assuming better things about your people group than you have a Biblical reason for? What good will it do to think well of the millions who speak your language, only to see vast numbers of them turned into Hell while you were not out of breath pursuing their souls?
- Some will argue that we must keep our focus on the unreached in the world like north Africa’s Islamic millions, not the reached areas in the south. May God send you, my brother, to the Islamic north! But that does not change the fact that the south has very few Christians and churches. Just because the north is drier, does not mean the south is lush and blooming. There are degrees, and the south, though having more access than the north, is still largely unconverted.
Conclusion
This is a terrible scenario. Why have I taken time to put our minds on these discouraging matters?
So that pastors will mention this in their sermons. So that churches will have prayer meetings specifically for evangelism and missions. This article is an exercise in lifting up your eyes, and looking on the fields.
The greatest news story in Africa is that she is overwhelmingly lost.